CONFLICT READER

Photo Source: Aung Shine Oo, AP Photo
   NIAS Course on Global Politics
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
For any further information or to subscribe to GP alerts send an email to subachandran@nias.res.in

CWA # 989, 21 June 2023
CONFLICT READER
The Civil War in Myanmar: Continuing Violence, the Battle of Attrition, and the Divide within ASEAN

  Bibhu Prasad Routray

Continuing Violence

Between 16 and 21 June 2023, at least 53 Myanmar troops including pro-military militia forces were killed in attacks by the People’s Defence Force (PDFs) Sagaing, Magwe, Tanintharyi, and Mandalay regions, and the Karen state. The biggest of coordinated PDFs attacks took place in Tanintharyi town on 17 June targeting a military detachment near Thamee Hla village by the Kaw Thoo Lei Army (Tanintharyi), an ethnic Karen resistance group, in which at least 30 soldiers were allegedly killed. 

On 18 June, ten soldiers were killed in a PDF attack on a military gunboat in the Irrawaddy river in Myingyan town of Mandalay region. Other attacks included an ambush on a military logistics detachment in Sagaing’s Kalewa town on 16 June and a landmine attack by the Black Wolf Army PDF in Shwebo town of Sagaing region on the same day. The PDFs used drones to drop bombs on pro-military militia facilities in the pro-regime village of Mar Lal Taw in Sagaing town. 

On 19 June 2023, a People’s Defence Force (PDF) named Urban Owls claimed to have shot dead Ye Khine, Yangon International Airport’s security chief in Yangon. Sources in the Urban Owls said Ye Khine detained pro-democracy activists, including artists and striking government staff, while they tried to leave the country from the airport and sent them to the detention centres. Ye Khine’s killing symbolizes the very latest in the ongoing attritional civil war in Myanmar between the ruling military junta and the parallel National Unity Government (NUG).    

The Prolonged War and the Battle of Attrition

The attacks described above provide a peep into the military’s expansive operations against the opposition groups, which in the recent past has focused on the Kayah state with the objective of gaining control over strategic Moebye town. Although incidents like the airstrike that killed more than 100 people in April 2023 in the Sagaing region have not been repeated, sustained attacks have continued to claim civilian lives. According to the Karenni Human Rights Group, 33 civilians were killed and 13 others were injured in fighting in and around Moebye town on the border of Shan and Kayah states between 27 May and 15 June. Artillery attacks by the military have also been reported from the Karen state and Bago region claiming civilian lives.      

Amid contrasting claims of normalcy by the junta and battlefield victories by the NUG, the direction and ultimate result of the military contestation between the two remains an area of intense interest.  

Prolonged wars between the state and the insurgencies/ resistance groups operating without external support typically favour the former. The state has access to enormous resources and dedicated sources of military hardware and is inclined to use indiscriminate violence to subdue opposition. The Myanmar military has imported at least $1 billion in arms and raw materials to manufacture weapons since the coup in February 2021. While Russia supplies the bulk of the weapons for the Tatmadaw, the Justice for Myanmar Group on 20 June said that Swedish weapons manufactured by an Indian company under license are also being exported to Myanmar. These included FFV-447 projectile fuzes designed for use with Swedish 84 mm Carl Gustaf recoilless rifles. Such rifles earlier sold to India by Sweden had been resold by New Delhi to Myanmar. Between 2017 and 2021, India was the third-largest supplier of weapons to Myanmar. 

The opposition, on the other hand, must scourge perennially for international support, finances, military and other logistics to continue fighting. So far, the NUG and the PDFs, with the trickle of support from largely unknown entities, have done well to withstand the onslaught of the Tatmadaw and hold on to sizeable areas. However, the attacks and fatalities they claim to inflict on the troops and pro-state militia may not be enough to shake the foundation of the military-run state in the long run. 

Crack within the ASEAN

Tatmadaw’s refusal to implement any of the suggested plans under the ‘five-point consensus’ to halt violence has peeved the ASEAN member states, who in October 2021 decided to exclude Myanmar from any of the group’s proceedings. However, some members of the consensus-driven bloc, in their individual capacities, have hardly shown much commitment to such a resolve. The latest to deviate was Thailand. On 19 June, the outgoing military-backed government hosted an informal dialogue in Pattaya to discuss a proposal for the regional bloc to “fully re-engage Myanmar at the leaders’ level”. Representatives from Laos, Cambodia, India, China, Brunei, and Vietnam, as well as Myanmar, attended the meeting, while Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore abstained. Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, himself a former coup leader, said direct talks were necessary to protect his country. However, the leader of Move Forward, Pita Limjaroenrat, who won the recent Thai general election, has said that he is committed to ASEAN-led solutions for Myanmar and distanced himself from the outgoing government’s talks with Myanmar’s junta.

Dodging the Sanctions

Media reports on 21 June indicated that the US is planning to impose new sanctions on Myanmar, this time on the Myanmar Foreign Trade Bank and Myanmar Investment and Commercial Bank, with a bid to cut off finances to the junta. A junta spokesperson, however, sought to play down the possible impact of the sanctions. There are contrasting viewpoints weighing on the impact of wide-ranging sanctions. While these may have economically squeezed the Tatmadaw to an extent, shreds of evidence point to the military’s undiminishing ability to survive.   

Amid Western sanctions, the military-run government’s survival has depended critically upon a variety of assistance from a select group of countries. While countries sharing borders with Myanmar, such as India and Thailand, are concerned about the ‘instability near home’, countries like Russia and China are using their anti-US position to dig deep into Myanmar’s economy and politics. Myanmar’s economic trade with Japan has not been disrupted. On 15 June, Myanmar’s electricity minister Thaung Han, attending the International Economic Forum in St Petersburg, signed a memorandum of understanding with NovaWind, a subsidiary of Russia’s state-owned nuclear firm Rosatom, and two Russian companies on wind-power feasibility studies. Another MoU was signed to start direct weekly flights between Yangon and Mandalay to Moscow and Novosibirsk. 

Tailpiece

29 months of civil war is all set to continue into the second half of 2023. The NUG’s principal demand for the restoration of democracy has met an iron wall of the junta’s own version of stability. The bloody confrontation isn’t likely to produce a winner anytime soon.

About the author

Dr Bibhu Prasad Routray is the Director of Mantraya, Goa. He was formerly a Deputy Director at the National Security Council Secretariat, Government of India.

Print Bookmark

PREVIOUS COMMENTS

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1189

Hoimi Mukherjee | Hoimi Mukherjee is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science in Bankura Zilla Saradamani Mahila Mahavidyapith.

Chile in 2023: Crises of Constitutionality
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1187

Aprajita Kashyap | Aprajita Kashyap is a faculty of Latin American Studies, School of International Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University New Delhi.

Haiti in 2023: The Humanitarian Crisis
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1185

Binod Khanal | Binod Khanal is a Doctoral candidate at the Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi.

The Baltic: Energy, Russia, NATO and China
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1183

Padmashree Anandhan | Padmashree Anandhan is a Research Associate at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangaluru.

Germany in 2023: Defence, Economy and Energy Triangle
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1178

​​​​​​​Ashok Alex Luke | Ashok Alex Luke is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science at CMS College, Kottayam.

China and South Asia in 2023: Advantage Beijing?
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1177

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri | Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri is a postgraduate student at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at the University of Madras, Chennai.

China and East Asia
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Afghanistan